Today is a big day for American democracy, as voters head to the polls in what they have been told by both major party candidates, the media, and their neighbors as the most consequential election in the history of the United States. While I would not necessarily disagree with that assertion, it begs the question – in this extremely divided country, will the possibly most consequential election also be the closest?

That is what the KlossAnalytics election forecast model is committed to answering. Utilizing a combination of 1) adjusted and weighted polling data along with 2) fundamental metrics covering past election results, realignment trends, demographics, and party enthusiasm/registration numbers, the KlossAnalytics model has forecasted the winner of each state along with a mean outcome and the realistic range of possibilities. For each state, you will see a mean predicted outcome along with an outcome for a “Dem” and “GOP” friendly scenario. While the mean outcome is the forecast model’s final prediction, the realistic range of possibilities can fall between the “mean” and friendly scenario’s depending on how well each candidate outperforms expectation. But enough explaining of the model, please explore the tabs  as I lay out what we can expect for election night 2024. And please, if you haven’t already done so – VOTE!!!!