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Overview of the Alternate Models
In 2016, Donald Trump (R) shocked most Americans when he outperformed public polling and most reputable political forecasters by securing an upset victory arguably not seen since the victory of Harry Truman (D) in 1948.
If you believe he can do it again, my Republican Outperform model is what we would expect to see if we shift the model ~3.5 points towards Republicans at a nationwide scale and using different models for voter turnout. If you are of the opposite mindset and believe the record early voter turnout is indication of a Democratic tsunami, then the Democratic Outperform model is the one for you.
Alternate Scenario 1:
Republican Outperform
Electoral Map With Toss Up
Biden (D) 226 - Trump (R) 162
Electoral Votes Remaining: 131
Electoral Map - NO TOSS UP
Biden (D) 278 - Trump (R) 260
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The New Toss Up States
(9 States, 131 Electoral Votes)
Under the Republican Outperform model, we see the states of Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin shift from the Lean Democratic to Toss Up column. While under this model the states still stick with Biden, the margins are narrow enough in which a slight bit of extra movement towards Trump could put him over the top. Under this model, Wisconsin is seen as the tipping point state as if it flips to Trump, he secures the necessary 270 electoral votes to win.
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Additionally, the states of Arizona, Florida, Georgia, and North Carolina are now projected to vote for Trump while the states of Ohio and Texas are moved to Lean GOP.
Alternate Scenario 2:
Democratic Outperform
Electoral Map With Toss Up
Biden (D) 350 - Trump (R) 98
Electoral Votes Remaining: 84
Electoral Map - NO TOSS UP
Biden (D) 412 - Trump (R) 126
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The New Toss Up States
(9 States, 131 Electoral Votes)
Under the Democratic Outperform model, we see the typically solid red states of Alaska, Kansas, Montana, and South Carolina into the toss up category. While none of these states would expect to flip to Biden even if in this favorable model, we would see much slimmer margins than usual which could lead to democratic victories in the competitive senate races in these states.
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Additionally, we see the states of Iowa, Ohio, and Texas vote for Biden instead of Trump. While Obama won Iowa and Ohio in both of his runs for the presidency, a victory in Texas for the Democratic Party would be the first in a presidential election since 1976.
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