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Arizona.PNG
A key race that both parties will watch with bated breath, Arizona, provides us with data that diverges from the norm established in almost every other competitive race. Kelly (D) remains competitive among white voters, even outpacing his opponent Masters (R) in some data. This discrepancy is made more interesting when Hispanic data is taken into account where Masters also manages to poll competitively despite his republican counterparts tending to fall short in the same group. Masters has a 10 percent lead with men and about the same margin loss among women. Education appears as a major fork in deciding this race. Masters wins narrowly among voters with little education while Kelly holds a demanding 20-point lead among the college educated. Finally, the young are deeply entrenched with Kelly while older demographics favor Masters, however the age group of 65+ appears torn, with polling data coming out with relatively split opinions. Our rating of the Arizona 2022 Senatorial election is: Toss up with a slight Democratic lean. Kelly to win by 0.2 points.
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