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The Battle for the Governorships
Governor Map With Toss Up
Democrats 20 - Republicans 26
Seats Remaining: 4
Governor Map - NO TOSS UP
Democrats 22 - Republicans 28
Net Change: EVEN
Light red indicates GOP Pickup
Light Blue indicates Dem Pickup
Toss Up States (8 States)
The following are states in which the leading candidate is leading within the margin of error. While a winner is projected, these states are truly up for grabs.
(I) = Incumbent, Bold Font = Pickup
The Leaner (2 States)
The following state leans towards one party or the other. While the winning margin is not within the margin of error, shifting the model by a few points towards one candidate or another make these close races or a near-landslide.
(I) = Incumbent, Bold Font = Pickup
Likely States (11 States)
The following are states that are almost with certainty to vote for one candidate or the other. The winning margin at this point is beyond 2x the margin of error, and would require a significant shift from the model projections to make any of these states competitive.
(I) = Incumbent, Bold Font = Pickup
State Specific Notes
Alaska - Uses ranked choice voting. The model projects a 69.6% chance that Les Gara (D) advances to the second round and a 30.4% chance that Bill Walker (I) will. The above table shows the results in the these scenarios.
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