top of page
The Battle for the White House
270 Electoral Votes to Win
Electoral Map With Toss Up
Harris (D) 226 - Trump (R) 218
Electoral Votes Remaining: 94
Note: Colors of state correspond to rating in table above
Electoral Map - NO TOSS UP
Harris (D) 276 - Trump (R) 262
​
​
Toss Up States (7 States, 94 Electoral Votes)
In the final forecast - the election model has Kamala Harris projected to win 276 electoral votes to Donald Trump’s 262. Of the Toss Up states, Kamala can only afford to lose Nevada – as losing Michigan, Pennsylvania, or Wisconsin would tip the electoral math in Trump’s favor. And despite the forecast model predicting a Kamala victory, her winning margins there are projected to be smaller than Trump in the swing states he is expected to win. But if I was to make an educated guess as to which candidate is likely to outperform their margins listed below? I would go with Kamala, as momentum seems to be on her side.
Of course, the actual election results will likely deviate in either direction for each state above from the model prediction. The table below identifies what election results will look like in either a Democratic or Republican friendly scenario - with results likely falling between the model prediction and the "friendly" scenario in either direction. As seen below, there is a possibility for either candidate to sweep the swing states.
Lean and Likely States
(13 States, 156 Electoral Votes)
The following are states that are “leaning” or “likely” to go to a specific candidate. While the model is very confident in a projection for these states, I would watch for Kansas and Iowa as two states in which Kamala could significantly outperform the model due to some last-minute issues affecting the race (primarily abortion bans and the perceived impact of Trump’s proposed tariff policy).
Safe States (30 States, 288 Electoral Votes)
The following are states that are with almost absolute certainty to vote for one candidate or the other. For the trailing candidate to win this state would require an upset that would leave even former President Truman shocked.
bottom of page