The following are my model’s predictions for the US Senate elections, with an expected outcome of 51 Republican seats and 49 Democratic. The best hope for Democrats to keep the US Senate blue is to win Montana and elect Jon Tester to a fourth term in office, as the model seems to consider it very likely that Ted Cruz will keep Texas red and secure his third term despite a strong campaign from Collin Allred.

Below are the 12 Senate states in which the model believes there is not an absolute certain outcome, although some of these races have a very clear favorite. Below you will find the predicted margins for each race, and a subsequent table with the model prediction alongside Dem/GOP friendly scenarios.