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Georgia Senate Runoff
As of December 6th, 2022 5:45PM CST
As the polls close tonight in Georgia, the last senate race in the 2022 midterm cycle will be concluded. The only senate race to go to a runoff this year, this race will not decide who is in the majority - that will be the Democrats regardless of the outcome. But with the House of Representatives narrowly in Republican control (222-213), winning this senate seat will have major implications on the Biden administration's legislative agenda in the next year.
In the first round, incumbent Senator Raphael Warnock (D) narrowly edged out former UGA football star Herschel Walker (R) by 0.9% (49.4 to 48.5%). It was widely thought that if control of the senate was at stake in this runoff, then Warnock's best chance was to win outright in the first round by securing >50%. While Warnock failed to cross the threshold, Democrats secured control of the US Senate on election night. With not only control of the senate no longer being at stake, several other factors have given Warnock further momentum headed into the runoff election. These factors include:
1. Money
Democrats have held a massive cash advantage, Warnock and affiliated groups have spent $52.5 million to Walker's $25 million in the runoff...that's more than a 2-1 advantage!
2. Star Power
Several high-profile (and popular) Democrats, the most notable being former Pres. Barack Obama, have come out to campaign for Warnock. On the other hand, Republicans have brought in a few higher profile senators such as Lindsay Graham but have not brought in the kind of support that could lead to a turnout boost among the base. Most notably, former Pres. Donald J Trump decided to sit this race out.
3. Gaffes and Scandal
This is a bit more subjective, but Warnock has managed to avoid major controversies in this race - while Walker has made several unforced errors in recent weeks that you typically don't see in winning campaigns in a swing state. It makes one wonder, if the GOP would have nominated a more polished candidate if they would have had a better chance against Warnock. While statewide elections are different than federal, the Georgia GOP managed to win every other statewide race including Governor, Attorney general, State Treasurer, etc. by comfortable margins (4-8%). While it's certainly possible that Warnock was a better candidate than the other statewide democrats on the ballot, it's hard to argue that Walker's gaffe and scandal prone campaign hasn't put the Republicans in a more difficult position than necessary.
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Yet, despite the momentum on the side of Warnock, the model still very much indicates a potential path to victory for Herschel Walker. This is a state after all this is still a traditional red leaning state, it is only in the age of Trump that Georgia has been competitive for Democrats in almost two decades. In the median scenario, the model projects that Warnock will beat Walker by a 1.7% margin, 50.85% to 49.15%. This equates to a ~63% of Warnock winning the election, leaving a margin of error significant enough that Walker could win even by only outperforming the model slightly.
In other words, Walker doesn't need everything to go his way to win but he surely does need a few factors if he wants to get over the hump. For the republican outperform scenario to be realized, Walker will need to rely on large election day turnout numbers, less non-white voter turnout than Nov 8 election, and for undecideds that mainly have unfavorable personal views of him, to break his way. On the other hand, Warnock could very well outperform the median scenario by a large black voter turnout, if the ATL metro area reports a stronger share of the total vote than the Nov 8 election day, and for an underwhelming Election day voter turnout.
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