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​A race with constant national coverage and the eyes of the nation upon it for a multitude of reasons, Georgia is a key battleground for the direction of the United States Senate. Republican novice Herschel Walker faces incumbent Rafael Warnock in a battle that divides the state by race. Among whites, Walker Holds a stunning 30-point lead. The states black population is responsible for the competition as 82% side with Warnock while Walker has only 16%. Ages 18-50 leans towards Warnock while ages 50+ battle with mixed results that lean more towards Walker in accordance with the respondent’s age. This race looks to be extremely close, unlike the same state’s gubernatorial election. Our rating of the Georgia 2022 Senatorial election is: Toss up, with a slight GOP lean. We also believe there is a strong probability of a runoff happening in this election as it did for the same seat in 2020. In that scenario, we would see Walker win the electorate while Warnock wins the popular vote and forces a runoff. At the elections end, we predict that Walker has a slight advantage over Warnock with a 55% chance to win.
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