Where the Race Stands
As of 11/7 5PM CST
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Joe Biden (D) is elected the 46th President of the United States
Pennsylvania and Nevada put him over 270
Electoral Map
Biden (D) 290 - Trump (R) 214
Electoral Votes Remaining: 34
270 Electoral Votes to Win
Projected Total (As of 11/7 5PM CST)
Biden (D) 306 - Trump (R) 232
Stay Tuned on Monday Evening for further updates
Earlier Updates
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11/5 10PM CST
Electoral Map
Biden (D) 264 - Trump (R) 214
Electoral Votes Remaining: 60
270 Electoral Votes to Win
As of 4pm CST on November 6th, Joe Biden has continued to inch closer to an outright victory in the electoral college, with the remaining outstanding votes from Pennsylvania expected today would put him over the top. Additionally, the states of Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada reported new totals today that have given further clarity to a nation that still remains without a President-elect. So, can we finally expect a winner tonight or will the wait continue?
Nevada continues to report results, and they continue to trend in the wrong direction for the president. While it doesn't seem substantial, Biden picking up a single point in his margin against Trump in Clark County has continued to put the state further out of reach with a current statewide lead of 1.6% with 92% of results reporting. I think once we continue to see these results out of Clark County, this margin will continue to expand but certainly not to the degree that Philadelphia has changed totals in Pennsylvania. Biden's chance of victory is increased to a formidable 90% in this state, with an expected margin of 2-3 points still looking likely.
Full results from Clayton County have put Joe Biden into the lead in Georgia, but it is miles away from being a decisive one. Biden's <0.1% lead (or 1,533 votes) is likely to grow ever so slightly with reports of outstanding ballots in Gwinett County, a suburban county of the Atlanta metro area. But unlike Clayton, Biden's lead is far less in the county (+18% in Gwinett vs. +71% in Clayton), so while the count should add to his lead it is almost certain to put him out of reach of avoiding a recount. But with the state additionally presenting voters an opportunity to correct rejected absentee ballots until later today it would also be almost certain that a recount would still result in a Biden lead. Expect Georgia to end up in Biden's column barring a surprise with a 85% chance of victory, but with an expected margin closer to 0.2% than 0.6% (the range mentioned in yesterday's update).
(UPDATE AT 4:40PM). Totals have come in from Gwinnett County, Biden's lead over Trump is now 4,000 votes in the state. The chances of a recount changing the result in Trump's favor in the state are <1%.
So once again, what the heck is going on with Arizona? We are currently sitting at an estimated 94% of total votes reported and Biden leads by 1.3%, a slight drop from last night's update of 1.6% at 90% reporting. The good news for Trump here is that he managed to narrow the margin statewide, the bad news for him is that the red counties on the map reporting absentee totals were a major reason, and those actually hurt Trump's lead overall in the county. With Biden counties such as Pima County, home to Tucson (95% reporting, Biden +21%) and Apache County in the NE corner of the state (72% reporting, Biden +38%) left to report totals that will likely offset the remaining Trump counties, the state is unlikely to be flipped at this point. Biden now has a ~90% chance of victory in the state with a likely margin of victory still at ~2-3 points.
And in Pennsylvania? Well, as mentioned in the opening paragraph, Biden has pulled into the lead of 0.2% with 95% reporting that won't slow down until all the ballots are counted. With Allegheny County, home to Pittsburgh (94% reporting, Biden +20%) still expected to report a substantial amount of ballots in addition to Philadelphia County (96% reporting, Biden +62%), Trump's chances of turned next to none in the state. With Decision Desk having already called the state for Biden, I think as soon as tonight or early tomorrow the Associated Press could as well. Biden's chances of victory are now >95%, with a margin of 2.5-3% remaining likely.
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In conclusion, the dynamics have not changed and neither have the final state projections since Wednesday morning. Biden is on track to become the next president of the United States, barring an upset beyond anything we've seen yet. But in a year like 2020, anything is possible...isn't it?
Projected Total (As of 11/6 4:30PM CST)
Biden (D) 306 - Trump (R) 232
Stay Tuned for an update on the battle for the US Senate tonight, and the Presidency again tomorrow evening.
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11/5 10PM CST
Electoral Map
Biden (D) 264 - Trump (R) 214
Electoral Votes Remaining: 60
270 Electoral Votes to Win
By the time I made a post tonight, I was hoping to see one of the remaining states left in gray would have been called by the Associated Press for one candidate or another. But here we are at 10pm CST on November 5th, and we still do not have a winner for the United States presidency declared. The dynamics of the race have additionally not changed since last night, Biden remains the clear favorite but there is still a viable path to victory for the president. And a state that was called early by the AP for Biden is starting to come into question.
So what the heck is going on with Arizona? We are currently sitting at an estimated 90% of total votes reported and Biden's holds a slim lead of 1.6%, a notable drop from where he was from initial results on election night when the Associated Press called Biden the winner. The map above has been using the AP's calls to confirm a winner due to their rather conservative nature with calling races. But...it is worth noting that the last time the AP called a state prematurely in a presidential race was Florida for Al Gore in 2000.
What would ultimately determine if Trump has a real chance of winning the state is if he can continue to narrow Biden's lead in Maricopa County (89% reporting, Biden +4%), a county that with the capital city of Phoenix has not gone Democratic since 1948 at the presidential level. The only hesitation I have in breaking with the AP on uncalling this race for Biden is mainly related to what has pulled Biden ahead in many of the other remaining states, the bulk of the outstanding votes being absentee. But unlike other remaining states, there is also a substantial amount of rural vote left that can further propel the race in Trump's direction. If Biden's lead continues to diminish and the absentee doesn't trend the expected direction, expect a potential move in tomorrow's update back to the remaining category. For now, I'd say Biden has a 75% chance of victory in the state that ends up being ~2-3 points.
In Georgia, we aren't just down to the wire...we could be a step or two away from 100% of results reporting and Trump leads by less than 0.1% (1,900 votes!!) What is left? The same county I referenced yesterday, Clayton County is set to report ~5,600 votes at around 11pm CST tonight. With this ballot tabulation, I think we should expect to see Biden pull ahead with a final Biden victory in the range of 0.2-0.6% once 100% of preliminary counts are in. But with such a small margin don't expect this state to be formally declared for either candidate with the state expected to do an audit of election results.
Oh and what about Nevada, the state that only gave us a small update today, upping Biden's lead to 0.9% from 0.6% at 89% reporting. Outstanding rural votes of similar volume to votes out of Clark County today did not break the state in the direction Trump needed. With Clark County still sitting at about 88% of the vote reporting, it doesn't seem too likely that Trump will be able to flip this state but given the Arizona surprise we've been witnessing it's still possible. I'm raising Biden's chances of victory here to 80%, with a 2.5% margin of victory still looking likely.
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And what about North Carolina? We might be waiting on that one for a few days as the state allows any absentee ballots that arrive by Nov 12. With little results coming in since yesterday morning, scroll below to yesterday's 9am for current projections on the state.
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(UPDATED AT 10:45PM CST)
And finally, we have Pennsylvania. This might be a state in which I could see myself slightly lowering Biden's margin of victory, but not his chances of winning. Trump still leads the state by 0.3% with 95% of estimated votes reported, but it is worth pointing out where that oustanding vote continues to be primarily located. See that sea of blue? That's Philadelphia and it's suburbs, and as I mentioned in the past two updates it has become Biden's key to victory in the state. As we continue to see these results come in, Biden will overtake Trump's lead and finish ahead by 2.5-3% with a 95% chance of victory. And if Biden secures Pennsylvania? Well, then Arizona is insignificant to the outcome of the race and Joe Biden is elected the 46th President of the United States.
Source: New York Times
Projected Total (As of 11/5 10PM CST)
Biden (D) 306 - Trump (R) 232
Stay Tuned for another update on 11/6, 4pm CST.
Electoral Map
Biden (D) 264 - Trump (R) 214
Electoral Votes Remaining: 60
270 Electoral Votes to Win
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11/4 10PM CST
Currently at 11/4 10pm CST, Joe Biden appears likely to win the presidential election after securing a victory in Wisconsin by 0.6% (99% reporting) and Michigan by 2.2% (99% reporting). By winning these two states Joe Biden is in a position where winning any of the remaining states, with the exception of Alaska, would secure the necessary 270 electoral votes to win. So, with the odds against him...can Donald Trump still pull off a victory?
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As results continue to come in, the state of Georgia has lived up to the hype of delivering a down to the wire race. Currently, Trump leads in the state by 0.8% with 95% of estimated totals reporting. At the update this morning at 9am, Trump led by 2.2% with 92% reporting signaling a significant amount of the outstanding vote being for Biden. So how likely is this trend to continue?
Source: New York Times
Well, given that the remaining bulk of the vote left to be counted remains in Clayton County of the Atlanta Metro area (84% reporting, Biden +71%), Chatham County, home to Savannah (87% reporting, Biden +17%) and Muscogee County, home to Columbus (89% reporting, Biden +24%), Trump needs to essentially match these totals in the remaining outstanding rural vote. The only issue for Trump is that most of these counties are significantly smaller. For example, Clayton County alone has already tallied 103,353 votes while most of the outstanding Trump counties are reporting voting totals <10% of this number. That being said, this state is by no means set to be taken by Biden but I'm raising his chances here to 65% with a most likely victory margin of 0.5%
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Source: New York Times
Next we have Pennsylvania, a state in which Trump's earlier 11% lead has narrowed down to a 2.9% lead with 88% of estimated totals reporting. What has been the primary source has been the incoming absentee vote in Philadelphia County, which has pushed Biden's lead in the county from +56% to +60%. Another issue Trump faces here is that Philadelphia county is the county with currently the lowest percentage of total estimated votes reporting at 70%. As this margin expands and votes continue to report, Trump needs larger counties in which he is currently leading such as Cumberland County in the rural part of the state (77% reporting, Trump +25%) to not have the outstanding absentee ballot continue to reduce the total margins in these counties as they have in Philadelphia and throughout the state. While still possible, I'd argue the current outstanding totals in Philadelphia and it's suburbs will be tough to overcome. I'm raising Biden's chances here to 80%, with the most likely margin being ~3-4 points.
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Source: New York Times
And finally, we have the state of Nevada a state that Clinton won by 2.4% in 2016. The fact we are talking about this state is a testament to one of the more interesting demographic shifts in the state among the Hispanic vote (~19% of the state's total) to Trump. In 2016 he lost the vote by a whopping 41% against Clinton down to 19% against Biden. And with 86% of the estimated total votes reporting a razor thin Biden lead of 0.6%, Nevada (a state not recognized as a key state to either candidate's path to victory) is suddenly in play.
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Next updates from election officials are not expected until Thursday at 11AM CST, and that likely won't be all of it as outstanding absentee votes will likely be counted through next week. An issue for Trump here is part of the nationwide trend of the absentee ballots skewing in Biden's favor in comparison to same day voting. Clark County, home to Las Vegas, is currently reporting 84% of estimated totals with Biden leading 53-45%, slightly exceeding Clinton's 2016 margin. Given the fact that Clark County makes up about half of the state's population, if this margin holds or expands as the final vote comes in then Biden's lead is going to be a tall task for Trump to overcome given outstanding votes in the rest of the state. With these dynamics, I'd project this race to finish for Biden by ~2.5% with a 75% chance of victory.
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Projected Total (As of 11/4 10PM CST)
Biden (D) 306 - Trump (R) 232
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11/4 9AM CST
In the base edition of the model, or the "median" scenario, Joe Biden was projected to win an electoral college victory of 350 electoral votes to President Trump's 188 electoral votes. Barring a major change in the vote counting trajectory, Joe Biden will fall short of that projection after losing the state of Florida due to an unexpected demographic shift among primarily Cuban Americans towards Trump in Miami-Dade County.
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Additionally, North Carolina is currently reporting a Trump lead of 1.4% with 95% of total votes reported. Unlike in Florida, late arriving absentee ballot totals could still eek out an upset here for Joe Biden, primarily in the Democratic strongholds of Raleigh and Charlotte as Greensboro has reported >99% of it's totals in. Given the stretch it would require, I'd say there's ~80% chance North Carolina remains in Trump's column once all votes are counted.
Source: New York Times
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As a result of Trump outperforming the model in this respect, I would be poised to say we are going to see the "Republican outperform" model come to form but there are two other key states that the base model listed as toss ups that would land in Biden's column, the states of Arizona and Georgia. Unless same day vote totals are significantly underestimated, Joe Biden has locked the state of Arizona into his fold while the state of Georgia is turning into a true nail-biter.
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Georgia is a state that has traditionally seen late arriving vote totals skew disproportionately to the Democratic party due to large metro areas such as Atlanta, Columbus, and Savannah reporting their totals at a slower pace than the overwhelmingly pro-Trump rural parts of the state. At the moment, despite being down by 2.2% with 92% estimated total votes reported, the total outstanding votes left would point to a roughly 55-60% chance of a Biden victory in the state. Luckily with Georgia we won't have to wait long, with a commitment from the Secretary of State to have full totals available by 12PM EST on 11/4 (though we will see if they can stick to that deadline).
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Source: New York Times
As for the key Midwestern states of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, states that my model had leaning democratic certainly appear to be looking more like true toss ups rather than leaning in either direction. Wisconsin currently has 97% of the estimated total votes reported and Joe Biden currently leads by 0.7%, in Michigan with 87% of the votes in Trump leads by 0.4%, and in Pennsylvania with 75% of the results in Trump leads by ~11.5%. Wisconsin seems to be likely to stay right about where it's at with rural Pro-Trump outstanding votes likely matching the still to be counted absentee votes. Given the current outstanding totals in Michigan mainly being from pro-Biden Wayne County (home of Detroit), I think we will see Biden pulling ahead statewide by ~2-3 points when all is said and done.
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I want to focus on Pennsylvania as without it, Trump's chance of victory become minimal. So far, the state has definitely turned out to be much more pro-Trump than expected in the areas that Biden had hoped to flip such as Lackawanna County, which holds his hometown of Scranton that he made a central piece of his campaign message. While Lackawanna shifted back to the democrats after a large shift towards Trump from Obama, the shift back has only made up about 50% of the shift we saw in 2016.
Source: New York Times
However, Lackawanna County and other counties made primarily of blue-collar voters were only one part of Biden's two-fold strategy to shift Pennsylvania back to the Democratic column with the Philadelphia suburbs being the other target demographic. Currently, the bulk of reported votes out of this area have been same-day vote totals with a large majority of absentee ballots yet to be counted. The magnitude of these ballots and how much they skew for Biden will be key to securing Pennsylvania, and the presidency. Given how many votes are outstanding from Philadelphia and the suburbs, I think this state is more likely to turn in Biden's column (~70% chance) but at the moment it's fair game for both sides.