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The Battle for the US Senate
51 for a Majority
(Or 50 + VP Tiebreaker)
Bold Indicates Pickup
Senate Map With Toss Up
Democrats 48 - Republicans 44
Seats Remaining: 8
Senate Map - NO TOSS UP
Democrats 52 - Republicans 48
Net Gain: Democrats +5
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Toss Up States (8 States)
The following are states in which the leading candidate is leading within the margin of error. While a winner is projected, these states are truly up for grabs.
NOTE: The Georgia Special Election is currently a four way race in which the top two vote-getters will proceed to a runoff. The projection below is for the runoff.
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(I) = Incumbent, Bold Font = Pickup
The Leaners (4 States)
The following are states that lean towards one candidate or another. While the winning margin is not within the margin of error, shifting the model by a few points towards one candidate or another make these states in play.
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(I) = Incumbent, Bold Font = Pickup
Likely States (7 States)
The following are states that are very likely to vote for one candidate or the other. The winning margin at this point is beyond 2x the margin of error, and would require a significant shift to make any of these states competitive.
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NOTE: The Louisiana and Mississippi senate races feature a jungle primary that proceeds to a runoff election among the top two vote-getters if no candidate reaches 50% in the first round. In Mississippi, a runoff is unlikely and the below projections feature expected results from the election on Nov 3. In Louisiana, chances of a runoff are currently projected at 47.9% and as a result projections below feature results from a hypothetical runoff election.
(I) = Incumbent, Bold Font = Pickup
Safe States (16 States)
The following are states that are with almost absolute certainty to vote for one candidate or the other. For the trailing candidate to win this state would require an upset of historic proportions.
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Will be Included in FULL Launch at 5PM CST
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