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The Battle for the US Senate
2022 Edition
51 for a Majority
(Or 50 + VP Tiebreaker)
Bold Indicates Pickup
Color of Incumbent Party Highlighted for Toss Ups
Currently, the US Senate is split 50-50 between Democrats and Republicans. As a result, Republicans only need a net gain of one seat to retake the majority.
If turnout nationwide mirrors what the model projects, then five toss-up races will be central in determining control of the US Senate. Of these five races, the Republicans are on the offensive as four of them are currently held by Democrats. Thus, Republicans need to win two of the five seats listed above to secure the majority while Democrats need four.
Senate Map With Toss Up
Democrats 46 - Republicans 49
Seats Remaining: 5
Senate Map - NO TOSS UP
Democrats 48 - Republicans 52
Net Gain: GOP +2
Light red indicates GOP Pickup
Toss Up States (8 States)
The following are states in which the leading candidate is leading within the margin of error. While a winner is projected, these states are truly up for grabs.
NOTE: If no candidate exceeds 50% in the Georgia Senate election, then it will proceed to a runoff.
(I) = Incumbent, Bold Font = Pickup
The Leaner (1 State)
The following state leans towards the GOP. While the winning margin is not within the margin of error, shifting the model by a few points towards one candidate or another make this a close race or a near-landside.
(I) = Incumbent, Bold Font = Pickup
Likely States (5 States)
The following are states that are almost with certainty to vote for one candidate or the other. The winning margin at this point is beyond 2x the margin of error, and would require a significant shift from the model projections to make any of these states competitive.
(I) = Incumbent, Bold Font = Pickup
Safe States (23 Races)
The following are states that are with almost absolute certainty to vote for one candidate or the other. For the trailing candidate to win this state would require an upset of historic proportions.
State Specific Notes
Alaska - Uses ranked choice voting. The model projects that the two candidates with the top votes will be both Republicans
Louisiana - Features a jungle primary system in which the top two candidates proceed to a runoff if no candidate is above 50%. Currently, the model projects a 1.1% chance of a runoff.
Utah - The Democrats choose not to run a candidate in Utah this cycle. Evan McMullin, an Independent who ran for president and received ~18% of the vote in Utah in 2016, is running as an unaffiliated candidate.
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